Monday, September 9, 2024

Heat deaths more than all other weather combined?

U.S. government data shows heat-related deaths per year are more than the combined deaths from cold, tornado, hurricane, other wind events, flood, drowning due to ocean rip currents and lightning. 

Furthermore, while heat-related deaths officially reported as averaging around 1,200 per year, indirect estimates put the number as exceeding 10,000 per year. The discrepancy exists because autopsy reports that state cause of death as heat-related are much lower than the spike in total deaths during the heat wave versus the average for the same time of year without hot weather. In Chicago, mid-July 1995 saw temperatures above 100 degrees for five days. During that period, more than 700 deaths above average occured, and hundreds more were hospitalized and survived. Details are explained at a Wikipedia article titled "1995 Chicago Heat Wave."See also the general article titled "Heat wave."

People at risk are the elderly, infants, indoor workers at facilities without air conditioning, outdoor workers, outdoor athletes and hikers, and the homeless. Dehydration increases risk. In addition, evidence supports that use of methamphetamine puts people at higher risk.

The other weather-related deaths are dying from cold, hurricane, tornado, wind (not hurricane or tornado), flood, lightning or rip currents near ocean shoreline caused by storm-generated waves. Each of these, except in extraordinary years, cause fewer than 100 deaths per year. Furthermore, deaths from these causes are not trending up or down, whereas since 2015 the number of heat-related deaths per year have more than doubled. 

On a larger scale, according to the World Health Organization, between 2000 and 2019 there were approximately 500,000 heat-related deaths each year, with close to 80% of that total from Asia and Europe. Lack of air conditioning - also lack of electricity - combined with longer periods of extreme temperatures and inadequate medical care for heat stroke, contribute to these deaths. 

Wildfire smoke

Another under-estimated contribuion to premature deaths is wildfire. In the U.S. deaths directly attributed to wildfire, as distinguished from building fires, numbers in the single digits or teens for most years, with spikes when people are unable to escape when a wildfire sweeps into a residential area. However, indirect causes of death that can be attributed to wildfire smoke is an entirely different story. For people with existing respiratory, cardiovasuclar, kidney and other diseases, are at increased premature death risk when exposed to wildfire smoke. Even suicide rates increase! As with heat-related deaths, smoke-related deaths are under diagnosed and under reported. A recent study published by researchers at Yale University estimated that wildfire smoke-related deaths are at 30,000 per year. As with heat-related deaths, the elderly, outdoor workers and people who cannot afford indoor air filtration machinery are at greater risk.  

After the hurricane is gone

The 2 October 2024 issue of Nature magazine (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5) has an interesting article titled "Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States." The key point is that for years (years!!) after a hurricane has passed through an area, there is a long-term increase in deaths above expected. The research tracked deaths following 501 hurricanes over the period 1930-2015. The report estimated that the average hurricane generated 7,000–11,000 excess deaths over a multi-year follow-up, which is far inexcess or the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics. These indirect deaths - from many causes - had the greatest effects on the very young, the elderly and the impoverished. Often the indirect causes include less access or ability to afford health care, resulting in increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and others (but not repiratory diseases, vehicle accidents or others). For the hurricane-targeted states stretching from Texas to Maryland and Deleware, indirect storm-attributed deaths put the death rates in those states at 5-10% above national average.